April Retail Inflation Drops to 3.16%, Lowest Since July 2019

 India's annual retail inflation eased to 3.16% in April, down from 3.34% in March, marking its lowest level in nearly six years, according to government data released Tuesday.

This is the lowest year-on-year inflation rate recorded since July 2019, the government noted in its statement.



Food inflation slowed to 1.78% in April from 2.69% in March. Vegetable prices declined 11% year-on-year, compared to a 7.04% drop in March.

Cereal prices increased by 5.35%, slightly lower than the 5.93% rise seen in March, while pulses prices fell 5.23%, an improvement over the 2.73% decline in the previous month.

“Inflation eased to 3.16% in April, driven by a broad-based reduction in food prices, including vegetables, cereals, and pulses. This CPI figure sets the stage for a potential 25 basis points rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in its June policy meeting. As expected, inflation remained below 4% for the third consecutive month, dropping from March’s 3.4% to 3.2% year-on-year,” said analysts.

Radhika Rao, Senior Economist at DBS Bank, Singapore, commented, “Although the decline in food perishables was less pronounced than in March due to changing weather patterns, the sequential momentum was better managed compared to last year. Additionally, lower global energy prices and a stronger rupee helped contain imported inflationary pressures. We do not anticipate any significant inflation impact from recent geopolitical tensions.”

The RBI, tasked with maintaining inflation at 4% ± 2%, has cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points in two steps as inflation trends improved.

For the fiscal year 2025-26, the central bank projects CPI inflation at 4%, with quarterly forecasts of 3.6% in Q1, 3.9% in Q2, 3.8% in Q3, and 4.4% in Q4

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